Appendix A to Subpart B of Part 650 - Risk-Based Capital Stress Test

b. The amount by which the stress test shocks the initial rate up and down is determined by calculating the 12-month average of the 10-year CMT monthly series. If the resulting average is less than 12 percent, the stress test shocks the initial rate by an amount determined by multiplying the 12-month average rate by 50 percent. However, if the average is greater than or equal to 12 percent, the stress test shocks the initial rate by 600 basis points. For example, determine the amount by which to increase and decrease the initial rate for June 30, 1999, as follows:

c. You must run the stress test for two separate changes in interest rates: (i) An immediate increase in the initial rate by the shock amount; and (ii) immediate decrease in the initial rate by the shock amount. The stress test then holds the changed interest rate constant for the remainder of the 10-year stress period. For example, at June 30, 1999, the stress test would be run for an immediate and sustained (for 10 years) upward movement in interest rates to 8.09 percent (5.54 percent plus 255 basis points) and also for an immediate and sustained (for 10 years) downward movement in interest rates to 2.99 percent (5.54 percent minus 255 basis points). The movement in interest rates that results in the greatest need for capital is then used to determine Farmer Mac's risk-based capital requirement.

a. This section describes the elements that are required for implementation of the stress test and assessment of Farmer Mac capital performance through time. An Excel spreadsheet named FAMC RBCST, available at www.fca.gov, contains the stress test, including the cashflow generator. The spreadsheet contains the following seven worksheets:

(1) Data Input;

(2) Assumptions and Relationships;

(3) Risk Measures (credit risk and interest rate risk);

(4) Loan and Cashflow Accounts;

(5) Income Statements;

(6) Balance Sheets; and

(7) Capital.

b. Each of the components is described in further detail in sections 4.1 through 4.7 of this appendix with references where appropriate to the specific worksheets within the Excel spreadsheet. The stress test may be generally described as a set of linked financial statements that evolve over a period of 10 years using generally accepted accounting conventions and specified sets of stressed inputs. The stress test uses the initial financial condition of Farmer Mac, including earnings and funding relationships, and the credit and interest rate stressed inputs to calculate Farmer Mac's capital performance through time. The stress test then subjects the initial financial conditions to the first period set of credit and interest rate risk stresses, generates cashflows by asset and liability category, performs necessary accounting postings into relevant accounts, and generates an income statement associated with the first interval of time. The stress test then uses the income statement to update the balance sheet for the end of period 1 (beginning of period 2). All necessary capital calculations for that point in time are then performed.

c. The beginning of the period 2 balance sheet then serves as the departure point for the second income cycle. The second period's cashflows and resulting income statement are generated in similar fashion as the first period's except all inputs (i.e., the periodic loan losses, portfolio balance by category, and liability balances) are updated appropriately to reflect conditions at that point in time. The process evolves forward for a period of 10 years with each pair of balance sheets linked by an intervening set of cashflow and income statements. In this and the following sections, additional details are provided about the specification of the income-generating model to be used by Farmer Mac in calculating the risk-based capital requirement.

The stress test requires the initial financial statement conditions and income generating relationships for Farmer Mac. The worksheet named “Data Inputs” contains the complete data inputs and the data form used in the stress test. The stress test uses these data and various assumptions to calculate pro forma financial statements. For stress test purposes, Farmer Mac is required to supply:

a. Call Report Schedules RC: Balance Sheet and RI: Income Statement. These schedules form the starting financial position for the stress test. In addition, the stress test calculates basic financial relationships and assumptions used in generating pro forma annual financial statements over the 10-year stress period. Financial relationships and assumptions are in section 4.2, “Assumptions and Relationships.”

b. Cashflow Data for Asset and Liability Account Categories. The necessary cashflow data for the spreadsheet-based stress test are book value, weighted average yield, weighted average maturity, conditional prepayment rate, weighted average amortization, and weighted average guarantee fees. The spreadsheet uses this cashflow information to generate starting and ending account balances, interest earnings, guarantee fees, and interest expense. Each asset and liability account category identified in this data requirement is discussed in section 4.2, “Assumptions and Relationships.”

c. Interest Rate Risk Measurement Results. The stress test uses the results from Farmer Mac's interest rate risk model to represent changes in the market value of assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet positions during upward and downward instantaneous shocks in interest rates of 300, 250, 200, 150, and 100 basis points. The stress test uses these data to calculate a schedule of estimated effective durations representing the market value effects from a change in interest rates. The stress test uses a linear interpolation of the duration schedule to relate a change in interest rates to a change in the market value of equity. This calculation is described in paragraph 4.4 entitled, “Loan and Cashflow Accounts,” and is illustrated in the referenced worksheet of the stress test.

d. Loan-Level Data for all Farmer Mac I Program Assets.

(1) The stress test requires loan-level data for all Farmer Mac I program assets to determine lifetime age-adjusted loss rates. The specific loan data fields required for running the credit risk component are:

(2) From the loan-level data, you must identify the geographic distribution by state of Farmer Mac's loan portfolio and enter the current loan balance for each state in the “Data Inputs” worksheet. The lifetime age-adjustment of origination year loss rates was discussed in section 2.0, “Credit Risk.” The lifetime age-adjusted loss rates, blended across standby and non-standby program assets are entered in the “Risk Measures” worksheet of the stress test. The stress test application of the loss rates is discussed in section 4.3, “Risk Measures.”

e. Other Data Requirements. Other data elements are taxes paid over the previous 2 years, the corporate tax schedule, selected line items from Schedule RS-C of the Call Report, and 10-year CMT information as discussed in section 3.1 entitled, “Process for Calculating the Interest Rate Movement.” The stress test uses the corporate tax schedule and previous taxes paid to determine the appropriate amount of taxes, including available loss carry-backs and loss carry-forwards. Three line items found in sections Part II 2.a. and 2.b. of Call Report Schedule RS-C Capital Calculation must also be entered in the “Data Inputs” sheet. The two line items found in Part II 2.a. contain the dollar volume off-balance sheet assets relating to the Farmer Mac I and II programs. The off-balance sheet program asset dollar volumes are used to calculate the operating expense regression on a quarterly basis. The single-line item found in Part II 2.b. provides the amount of other off-balance sheet obligations and is presented in the balance sheet section of the stress test for purposes of completeness. The 10-year CMT quarterly average of the monthly series and the 12-month average of the monthly series must be entered in the “Data Inputs” sheet. These two data elements are used to determine the starting interest rate and the level of the interest rate shock applied in the stress test.

a. The stress test assumptions are summarized on the worksheet called “Assumptions and Relationships.” Some of the entries on this page are direct user entries. Other entries are relationships generated from data supplied by Farmer Mac or other sources as discussed in section 4.1, “Data Inputs.” After current financial data are entered, the user selects the date for running the stress test. This action causes the stress test to identify and select the appropriate data from the “Data Inputs” worksheet. The next section highlights the degree of disaggregation needed to maintain reasonably representative financial characterizations of Farmer Mac in the stress test. Several specific assumptions are established about the future relationships of account balances and how they evolve.

b. From the data and assumptions, the stress test computes pro forma financial statements for 10 years. The stress test must be run as a “steady state” with regard to program balances, and where possible, will use information gleaned from recent financial statements and other data supplied by Farmer Mac to establish earnings and cost relationships on major program assets that are applied forward in time. As documented in the stress test, entries of “1” imply no growth and/or no change in account balances or proportions relative to initial conditions. The interest rate risk and credit loss components are applied to the stress test through time. The individual sections of that worksheet are:

(1) Elements related to cashflows, earnings rates, and disposition of discontinued program assets.

(A) The stress test accounts for earnings rates by asset class and cost rates on funding. The stress test aggregates investments into the categories of: Cash and money market securities; commercial paper; certificates of deposit; agency mortgage-backed securities and collateralized mortgage obligations; and other investments. With FCA's concurrence, Farmer Mac is permitted to further disaggregate these categories. Similarly, we may require new categories for future activities to be added to the stress test. Loan items requiring separate accounts include the following:

(i) Farmer Mac I program assets post-1996 Act;

(ii) Farmer Mac I program assets post-1996 Act Swap balances;

(iii) Farmer Mac I program assets pre-1996 Act;

(iv) Farmer Mac I AgVantage securities;

(v) Loans held for securitization; and

(vi) Farmer Mac II program assets.

(B) The stress test also uses data elements related to amortization and prepayment experience to calculate and process the implied rates at which asset and liability balances terminate or “roll off” through time. Further, for each category, the stress test has the capacity to track account balances that are expected to change through time for each of the categories in paragraph b. (1)(A) of this section. For purposes of the stress test, all assets are assumed to maintain a “steady state” with the implication that any principal balances retired or prepaid are replaced with new balances. The exceptions are that expiring pre-1996 Act program assets are replaced with post-1996 Act program assets.

(2) Elements related to other balance sheet assumptions through time. As well as interest earning assets, the other categories of the balance sheet that are modeled through time include interest receivable, guarantee fees receivable, prepaid expenses, accrued interest payable, accounts payable, accrued expenses, reserves for losses (loans held and guaranteed securities), and other off-balance sheet obligations. The stress test is consistent with Farmer Mac's existing reporting categories and practices. If reporting practices change substantially, the list in this section will be adjusted accordingly. The stress test has the capacity to have the balances in each of these accounts determined based upon existing relationships to other earning accounts, to keep their balances either in constant proportions of loan or security accounts, or to evolve according to a user-selected rule. For purposes of the stress test, these accounts are to remain constant relative to the proportions of their associated balance sheet accounts that generated the accrued balances.

(3) Elements related to income and expense assumptions. Several other parameters that are required to generate pro forma financial statements may not be easily captured from historic data or may have characteristics that suggest that they be individually supplied. These parameters are the gain on agricultural mortgage-backed securities (AMBS) sales, miscellaneous income, operating expenses, reserve requirement, and guarantee fees. The stress test assumes a 75 basis points gain rate on sales of AMBS securities, recognizing that this parameter, while reasonably related to recent performance, may change with changes in market conditions. Miscellaneous income as a percentage of total assets contributes 2 basis points to income.

(A) Fixed costs and variable costs are determined from historical financial data by running a regression (ordinary least squares) of operating expenses, excluding provision expense and taxes, to on-and off-balance sheet assets, including investments and Farmer Mac program assets. The regression equation can be expressed as:

Y = α + β1 ln(X) + β2D

(B) Where Y is operating expenses excluding provision for loans and tax expenses; ln(X) is the natural log of investments and Farmer Mac program assets held on-and off-balance sheet, and D is a dummy variable (1 represents pre-1996 and 0 represents post-1996). The regression is estimated using ordinary least squares, where (α) is the intercept, (β1) is the coefficient on the logarithm of on-balance sheet program assets and investments, and off-balance sheet program assets, and (β2) is the coefficient on the dummy variable.

(C) To run the stress test, the operating expense regression equation must be re-estimated using data from Farmer Mac's inception to the most recent quarterly financial information and the resulting coefficient entered into the “Assumptions and Relationships” worksheet. As additional data accumulate, the specification will be re-examined and modified if we deem changing the specification results in a more appropriate representation of operating expenses.

(D) The reserve requirement as a fraction of loan assets can also be specified. However, the stress test is run with the reserve requirement set to zero. Setting the parameter to zero causes the stress test to calculate a risk-based capital level that is comparable to regulatory capital, which includes reserves. Thus, the risk-based capital requirement contains the regulatory capital required, including reserves. The amount of total capital that is allocated to the reserve account is determined by GAAP. The guarantee rates applied in the stress test are: post-1996 Farmer Mac I assets (50 basis points, current weighted average of 42 basis points); pre-1996 Farmer Mac I assets (25 basis points); and Farmer Mac II assets (25 basis points).

(4) Elements related to earnings rates and funding costs.

(A) The stress test can accommodate numerous specifications of earnings and funding costs. In general, both relationships are tied to the 10-year CMT interest rate. Specifically, each investment account, each loan item, and each liability account can be specified as fixed rate, or fixed spread to the 10-year CMT with initial rates determined by actual data. The stress test calculates specific spreads (weighted average yield less initial 10-year CMT) by category from the weighted average yield data supplied by Farmer Mac as described earlier. For example, the fixed spread for Farmer Mac I program post-1996 Act mortgages is calculated as follows:

(B) The resulting fixed spread of 1.40 percent is then added to the 10-year CMT when it is shocked to determine the new yield. For instance, if the 10-year CMT is shocked upward by 300 basis points, the yield on Farmer Mac I program post-1996 Act loans would change as follows:

(C) The adjusted yield is then used for income calculations when generating pro forma financial statements. All fixed-spread asset and liability classes are computed in an identical manner using starting yields provided as data inputs from Farmer Mac. The fixed-yield option holds the starting yield data constant for the entire 10-year stress test period. You must run the stress test using the fixed-spread option for all accounts except for discontinued program activities, such as Farmer Mac I program loans made before the 1996 Act. For discontinued loans, the fixed-rate specification must be used if the loans are primarily fixed-rate mortgages.

(5) Elements related to interest rate shock test. As described earlier, the interest rate shock test is implemented as a single set of forward interest rates. The stress test applies the up-rate scenario and down-rate scenario separately. The stress test also uses the results of Farmer Mac's shock test, as described in paragraph c. of section 4.1, “Data Inputs,” to calculate the impact on equity from a stressful change in interest rates as discussed in section 3.0 titled, “Interest Rate Risk.” The stress test uses a schedule relating a change in interest rates to a change in the market value of equity. For instance, if interest rates are shocked upward so that the percentage change is 262 basis points, the linearly interpolated effective estimated duration of equity is −6.7405 years given Farmer Mac's interest rate measurement results at 250 and 300 basis points of −6.7316 and −6.7688 years, respectively found on the effective duration schedule. The stress test uses the linearly interpolated estimated effective duration for equity to calculate the market value change by multiplying duration by the base value of equity before any rate change from Farmer Mac's interest rate risk measurement results with the percentage change in interest rates.

a. This section describes the elements of the stress test in the worksheet named “Risk Measures” that reflect the interest rate shock and credit loss requirements of the stress test.

b. As described in section 3.1, the stress test applies the statutory interest rate shock to the initial 10-year CMT rate. It then generates a series of fixed annual interest rates for the 10-year stress period that serve as indices for earnings yields and cost of funds rates used in the stress test. (See the “Risk Measures” worksheet for the resulting interest rate series used in the stress test.)

c. The blended loss rates by state, as described in section 2.5 entitled, “Calculation of Loss Rates for Use in the Stress Test,” are entered into the “Risk Measures” worksheet and applied to the loan balances that exist in each state as reported in the initial loan portfolio of Farmer Mac. The initial distribution of loan balances by state is used to allocate new loans that replace loan products that roll off the balance sheet through time. The loss rates are applied both to the initial volume and to new loan volume that replaces expiring loans. The total life of loan losses that are expected at origination are then allocated through time based on a set of user entries describing the time-path of losses.

d. The loss rates estimated in the credit risk component of the stress test are based on an origination year concept, adjusted for loan seasoning. All losses arising from loans originated in a particular year are expressed as lifetime age-adjusted losses irrespective of when the losses actually occur. The fraction of the origination year loss rates that must be used to allocate losses through time are 43 percent to year 1, 17 percent to year 2, 11.66 percent to year 3, and 4.03 percent for the remaining years. The total allocated losses in any year are expressed as a percent of loan volume in that year to reflect the conversion to exposure year.

The worksheet labeled “Loan and Cashflow Data” contains the categorized loan data and cashflow accounting relationships that are used in the stress test to generate projections of Farmer Mac's performance and condition. As can be seen in the worksheet, the steady-state formulation results in account balances that remain constant except for the effects of discontinued programs. For assets with maturities under 1 year, the results are reported for convenience as though they matured only one time per year with the additional convention that the earnings/cost rates are annualized. For the pre-1996 Act assets, maturing balances are added back to post-1996 Act account balances. The liability accounts are used to satisfy the accounting identity, which requires assets to equal liabilities plus owner equity. In addition to the replacement of maturities under a steady state, liabilities are increased to reflect net losses or decreased to reflect resulting net gains. Adjustments must be made to the long- and short-term debt accounts to maintain the same relative proportions as existed at the beginning period from which the stress test is run. The primary receivable and payable accounts are also maintained on this worksheet, as is a summary balance of the volume of loans subject to credit losses.

a. Information related to income performance through time is contained on the worksheet named “Income Statements.” Information from the first period balance sheet is used in conjunction with the earnings and cost-spread relationships from Farmer Mac supplied data to generate the first period's income statement. The same set of accounts is maintained in this worksheet as “Loan and Cashflow Accounts” for consistency in reporting each annual period of the 10-year stress period of the test. The income from each interest-bearing account is calculated, as are costs of interest-bearing liabilities. In each case, these entries are the associated interest rate for that period multiplied by the account balances.

b. The credit losses described in section 2.0, “Credit Risk,” are transmitted through the provision account as is any change needed to re-establish the target reserve balance. For determining risk-based capital, the reserve target is set to zero as previously indicated in section 4.2. Under the income tax section, it must first be determined whether it is appropriate to carry forward tax losses or recapture tax credits. The tax section then establishes the appropriate income tax liability that permits the calculation of final net income (loss), which is credited (debited) to the retained earnings account.

a. The worksheet named “Balance Sheets” is used to construct pro forma balance sheets from which the capital calculations can be performed. As can be seen in the Excel spreadsheet, the worksheet is organized to correspond to Farmer Mac's normal reporting practices. Asset accounts are built from the initial financial statement conditions, and loan and cashflow accounts. Liability accounts including the reserve account are likewise built from the previous period's results to balance the asset and equity positions. The equity section uses initial conditions and standard accounts to monitor equity through time. The equity section maintains separate categories for increments to paid-in-capital and retained earnings and for mark-to-market effects of changes in account values. The process described in the “Capital” worksheet uses the initial retained earnings and paid-in-capital account to test for the change in initial capital that permits conformance to the statutory requirements. Therefore, these accounts must be maintained separately for test solution purposes.

b. The market valuation changes due to interest rate movements must be computed utilizing the linearly interpolated schedule of estimated equity effects due to changes in interest rates, contained in the “Assumptions & Relationships” worksheet. The stress test calculates the dollar change in the market value of equity by multiplying the base value of equity before any rate change from Farmer Mac's interest rate risk measurement results, the linearly interpolated estimated effective duration of equity, and the percentage change in interest rates. In addition, the earnings effect of the measured dollar change in the market value of equity is estimated by multiplying the dollar change by the blended cost of funds rate found on the “Assumptions & Relationships” worksheet. Next, divide by 2 the computed earnings effect to approximate the impact as a theoretical shock in the interest rates that occurs at the mid-point of the income cycle from period t0 to period t1. The measured dollar change in the market value of equity and related earnings effect are then adjusted to reflect any tax related benefits. Tax adjustments are determined by including the measured dollar change in the market value of equity and the earnings effect in the tax calculations found in the “Income Statements” worksheet. This approach ensures that the value of equity reflects the economic loss or gain in value of Farmer Mac's capital position from a change in interest rates and reflects any immediate tax benefits that Farmer Mac could realize. Any tax benefits in the module are posted through the income statement by adjusting the net taxes due before calculating final net income. Final net income is posted to accumulated unretained earnings in the shareholders' equity portion of the balance sheet. The tax section is also described in section 4.5 entitled, “Income Statements.”

c. After one cycle of income has been calculated, the balance sheet as of the end of the income period is then generated. The “Balance Sheet” worksheet shows the periodic pro forma balance sheets in a format convenient to track capital shifts through time.

d. The stress test considers Farmer Mac's balance sheet as subject to interest rate risk and, therefore, the capital position reflects mark-to-market changes in the value of equity. This approach ensures that the stress test captures interest rate risk in a meaningful way by addressing explicitly the loss or gain in value resulting from the change in interest rates required by the statute.

The “Capital” worksheet contains the results of the required capital calculations as described in section 5.0, and provides a method to calculate the level of initial capital that would permit Farmer Mac to maintain positive capital throughout the 10-year stress test period.

a. The stress test computes regulatory capital as the sum of the following:

(1) The par value of outstanding common stock;

(2) The par value of outstanding preferred stock;

(3) Paid-in capital;

(4) Retained earnings; and

(5) Reserve for loan and guarantee losses.

b. Inclusion of the reserve account in regulatory capital is an important difference compared to minimum capital as defined by the statute. Therefore, the calculation of reserves in the stress test is also important because reserves are reduced by loan and guarantee losses. The reserve account is linked to the income statement through the provision for loan-loss expense (provision). Provision expense reflects the amount of current income necessary to rebuild the reserve account to acceptable levels after loan losses reduce the account or as a result of increases in the level of risky mortgage positions, both on-and off-balance sheet. Provision reversals represent reductions in the reserve levels due to reduced risk of loan losses or loan volume of risky mortgage positions. When calculating the stress test, the reserve is maintained at zero to result in a risk-based capital requirement that includes reserves, thereby making the requirement comparable to the statutory definition of regulatory capital. By setting the reserve requirement to zero, the capital position includes all financial resources Farmer Mac has at its disposal to withstand risk.

a. Risk-based capital is calculated in the stress test as the minimum initial capital that would permit Farmer Mac to remain solvent for the ensuing 10 years. To this amount, an additional 30 percent is added to account for managerial and operational risks not reflected in the specific components of the stress test.

b. The relationship between the solvency constraint (i.e., future capital position not less than zero) and the risk-based capital requirement reflects the appropriate earnings and funding cost rates that may vary through time based on initial conditions. Therefore, the minimum capital at a future point in time cannot be directly used to determine the risk-based capital requirement. To calculate the risk-based capital requirement, the stress test includes a section to solve for the minimum initial capital value that results in a minimum capital level over the 10 years of zero at the point in time that it would actually occur. In solving for initial capital, it is assumed that reductions or additions to the initial capital accounts are made in the retained earnings accounts, and balanced in the debt accounts at terms proportionate to initial balances (same relative proportion of long- and short-term debt at existing initial rates). Because the initial capital position affects the earnings, and hence capital positions and appropriate discount rates through time, the initial and future capital are simultaneously determined and must be solved iteratively. The resulting minimum initial capital from the stress test is then reported on the “Capital” worksheet of the stress test. The “Capital” worksheet includes an element that uses Excel's “solver” or “goal seek” capability to calculate the minimum initial capital that, when added (subtracted) from initial capital and replaced with debt, results in a minimum capital balance over the following 10 years of zero.