§ 51.436 - Criteria and procedures: Interim period reductions in ozone and CO areas (transportation plan).

(a) A transportation plan must contribute to emissions reductions in ozone and CO nonattainment areas. This criterion applies during the interim and transitional periods only, except as otherwise provided in § 51.464. It applies to the net effect on emissions of all projects contained in a new or revised transportation plan. This criterion may be satisfied if a regional emissions analysis is performed as described in paragraphs (b) through (f) of this section.

(b) Determine the analysis years for which emissions are to be estimated. Analysis years shall be no more than ten years apart. The first analysis year shall be no later than the first milestone year (1995 in CO nonattainment areas and 1996 in ozone nonattainment areas). The second analysis year shall be either the attainment year for the area, or if the attainment year is the same as the first analysis year or earlier, the second analysis year shall be at least five years beyond the first analysis year. The last year of the transportation plan's forecast period shall also be an analysis year.

(c) Define the ‘Baseline’ scenario for each of the analysis years to be the future transportation system that would result from current programs, composed of the following (except that projects listed in §§ 51.460 and 51.462 need not be explicitly considered):

(1) All in-place regionally significant highway and transit facilities, services and activities;

(2) All ongoing travel demand management or transportation system management activities; and

(3) Completion of all regionally significant projects, regardless of funding source, which are currently under construction or are undergoing right-of-way acquisition (except for hardship acquisition and protective buying); come from the first three years of the previously conforming transportation plan and/or TIP; or have completed the NEPA process. (For the first conformity determination on the transportation plan after November 24, 1993, a project may not be included in the “Baseline” scenario if one of the following major steps has not occurred within the past three years: NEPA process completion; start of final design; acquisition of a significant portion of the right-of-way; or approval of the plans, specifications and estimates. Such a project must be included in the “Action” scenario, as described in paragraph (d) of this section.)

(d) Define the ‘Action’ scenario for each of the analysis years as the transportation system that will result in that year from the implementation of the proposed transportation plan, TIPs adopted under it, and other expected regionally significant projects in the nonattainment area. It will include the following (except that projects listed in §§ 51.460 and 51.462 need not be explicitly considered):

(1) All facilities, services, and activities in the ‘Baseline’ scenario;

(2) Completion of all TCMs and regionally significant projects (including facilities, services, and activities) specifically identified in the proposed transportation plan which will be operational or in effect in the analysis year, except that regulatory TCMs may not be assumed to begin at a future time unless the regulation is already adopted by the enforcing jurisdiction or the TCM is identified in the applicable implementation plan;

(3) All travel demand management programs and transportation system management activities known to the MPO, but not included in the applicable implementation plan or utilizing any Federal funding or approval, which have been fully adopted and/or funded by the enforcing jurisdiction or sponsoring agency since the last conformity determination on the transportation plan;

(4) The incremental effects of any travel demand management programs and transportation system management activities known to the MPO, but not included in the applicable implementation plan or utilizing any Federal funding or approval, which were adopted and/or funded prior to the date of the last conformity determination on the transportation plan, but which have been modified since then to be more stringent or effective;

(5) Completion of all expected regionally significant highway and transit projects which are not from a conforming transportation plan and TIP; and

(6) Completion of all expected regionally significant non-FHWA/FTA highway and transit projects that have clear funding sources and commitments leading toward their implementation and completion by the analysis year.

(e) Estimate the emissions predicted to result in each analysis year from travel on the transportation systems defined by the ‘Baseline’ and ‘Action’ scenarios and determine the difference in regional VOC and NOX emissions (unless the Administrator determines that additional reductions of NOX would not contribute to attainment) between the two scenarios for ozone nonattainment areas and the difference in CO emissions between the two scenarios for CO nonattainment areas. The analysis must be performed for each of the analysis years according to the requirements of § 51.452. Emissions in milestone years which are between the analysis years may be determined by interpolation.

(f) This criterion is met if the regional VOC and NOX emissions (for ozone nonattainment areas) and CO emissions (for CO nonattainment areas) predicted in the ‘Action’ scenario are less than the emissions predicted from the ‘Baseline’ scenario in each analysis year, and if this can reasonably be expected to be true in the periods between the first milestone year and the analysis years. The regional analysis must show that the ‘Action’ scenario contributes to a reduction in emissions from the 1990 emissions by any nonzero amount.