§ 1710.205 - Minimum requirements for all load forecasts.

§ 1710.205 Minimum requirements for all load forecasts.

Cross Reference

Link to an amendment published at 87 FR 73437, Nov. 30, 2022.

(a) Contents of load forecast. All load forecasts submitted by borrowers for approval must include:

(1) Scope of the load forecast. The narrative shall address the overall approach, time periods, and expected internal and external uses of the forecast. Examples of internal uses include providing information for developing or monitoring demand side management programs, supply resource planning, load flow studies, wholesale power marketing, retail marketing, cost of service studies, rate policy and development, financial planning, and evaluating the potential effects on electric revenues caused by competition from alternative energy sources or other electric suppliers. Examples of external uses include meeting State and Federal regulatory requirements, obtaining financial ratings, and participation in reliability council, power pool, regional transmission group, power supplier or member system forecasting and planning activities.

(2) Resources used to develop the load forecast. The discussion shall identify and discuss the borrower personnel, consultants, data processing, methods, and other resources used in the preparation of the load forecast. The borrower shall identify the borrower's members and, as applicable, member personnel that will serve as project leaders or liaisons with the authority to make decisions and commit resources within the scope of the current and future load forecasts.

(3) A

narrative describing the borrower's system, service territory, and consumers; (2) A narrative

comprehensive description of the database used in the study. The narrative shall describe the procedures used to collect, develop, verify, validate, update, and maintain the data. A data dictionary thoroughly defining the database shall be included. The borrower shall make all or parts of the database available or otherwise accessible to RUS in electronic format if requested.

(4) A narrative for each new load forecast or update of a load forecast. The narrative shall discuss the methods and procedures used in the analysis and modeling of the borrower's electric system loads. The narrative shall also describe the borrower's system, service territory, and consumers.

(5) A narrative discussing the borrower's past, existing, and forecast of future electric system loads. The narrative must identify and explain substantive assumptions and other pertinent information used to support the estimates presented in the load forecast.

(6) A narrative discussing load forecast uncertainty or alternative futures that may determine the borrower's actual loads. The narrative shall describe examples of uncertainties such as economic scenarios, weather conditions, and others that borrowers may decide to address in their analysis including:

(i) Most-probable assumptions, with normal weather;

(ii) Pessimistic assumptions, with normal weather;

(iii) Optimistic assumptions, with normal weather;

(iv) Most-probable assumptions, with severe weather;

(v) Most-probable assumptions, with mild weather;

(vi) Impacts of wholesale or retail competition; or

(vii) New environmental requirements.

(7) A summary of the forecast's results on an annual basis. Include alternative futures, as applicable: This summary shall be designed to accommodate the transfer of load forecast information to a borrower's other planning or loan support documents. Computer-generated forms or electronic submissions of data are acceptable. Graphs, tables, spreadsheets or other exhibits shall be included throughout the forecast as appropriate.

(8) A narrative discussing the coordination activities conducted between a power supply borrower and its members, as applicable, and between the borrower and RUS.

(9) Borrowers with a residential demand of 50 percent or more of total kWh should include in the Load Forecast a Residential Consumer Survey that is performed at least every 5 years to obtain data on appliance and equipment saturation and electricity demand. Any such borrower that is experiencing or anticipates changes in usage patterns shall consider surveys on a more frequent schedule. Power supply borrowers shall coordinate such surveys with their members.

(10) Residential consumer surveys may be based on the aggregation of member-based samples or on a system-wide sample, provided that the latter provides relevant regional breakdowns as appropriate.

(11) A load forecast for a power supply borrower and its members must cover all member systems, including those that are not borrowers. Each borrower is individually responsible for forecasting all its RE Act beneficiary and non-RE Act beneficiary loads.

(12) A narrative description of the borrower's load forecast including future load projections, forecast assumptions, and the methods and procedures used to develop the forecast

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13) Projections of usage by consumer class, number of consumers by class, annual system peak demand, and season of peak demand for the number of years agreed upon by RUS and the borrower

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14) A summary of the year-by-year results of the load forecast in a format that allows efficient transfer of the information to other borrower planning or loan support documents

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15) The load impacts of a borrower's demand side management and energy efficiency and conservation program activities, if applicable

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16) Graphic representations of the variables specifically identified by management as influencing a borrower's loads

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17) A database that tracks all relevant variables that might influence a borrower's loads.

(b) Formats. RUS does not require a specific format for the narrative, documentation, data, and other information in the load forecast, provided that all required information is included and available. All data must be in a tabular form that can be transferred electronically to RUS computer software applications. RUS will evaluate borrower load forecasts for readability, understanding, filing, and electronic access. If a borrower's load forecast is submitted in a format that is not readily usable by RUS or is incomplete, RUS will require the borrower to submit the load forecast in a format acceptable to RUS.

(c) Document Documentation retention. The borrower must retain its latest load forecasts and supporting documentation. Any load forecast work plan must be retained as part of the load forecast.

(d) Consultation with RUS. The borrower must designate and make appropriate staff and consultants available for consultation with RUS to facilitate RUS review of the load forecast when requested by RUS.

(e) Correlation and consistency with other RUS loan support documents. If a borrower relies on an approved load forecast or an update of an approved load forecast as loan support, the borrower must demonstrate that the approved load forecast and the other primary support documentation for the loan were reconciled. For example, both the load forecast and the financial forecast require input assumptions for wholesale power costs, distribution costs, other systems costs, average revenue per kWh, and inflation. Also, a borrower's engineering planning documents, such as the construction work plan, incorporate consumer and usage per consumer projections from the load forecast to develop system design criteria. The assumptions and data common to all the documents must be consistent.

(f) Coordination. A load forecast of a power supply borrower must consider the load forecasts of all its member systems.

[84 FR 32610, July 9, 2019, as amended at 87 FR 73437, Nov. 30, 2022]