2010-1399. Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

The Department of Commerce will submit to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for clearance the following proposal for collection of information under the provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. chapter 35).

Agency: U.S. Census Bureau.

Title: Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders Survey.

OMB Control Number: 0607-0561.

Form Number(s): MA-3000, MA-3000(I), MA3000-L1, MA-3000-L2.

Type of Request: Reinstatement, with change of an expired collection.

Burden Hours: 3,000.

Number of Respondents: 6,000.

Average Hours per Response: 30 minutes.

Needs and Uses: The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey collects monthly data on shipments, inventories, new orders, and unfilled orders from manufacturing companies. The orders and shipments data are used widely and are valuable tools for analysts of business cycle conditions, including members of the Council of Economic Advisers, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Department of the Treasury, and the business community.

New orders serve as an indicator of future production commitments; the data are direct inputs into the leading economic indicator series. New orders, as reported in the monthly survey, are derived by adding shipments to the net change in the unfilled orders from the previous month. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments is an important indicator of pressure on manufacturing capacity.

The monthly M3 estimates are based on a relatively small panel of domestic manufacturers and reflect primarily the month-to-month changes of large companies. There is a clear need for periodic benchmarking of the M3 estimates to reflect the entire manufacturing universe. The Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) provides annual benchmarks for the shipments and inventories but because the data are collected at the establishment level rather than the corporate level on the ASM and most companies retain records on unfilled orders at the corporate level, data collection of unfilled orders proved to be unsuccessful. In order to collect the appropriate and relevant data, the M3 discontinued the practice of collecting the data from the ASM, necessitating a separate survey for unfilled orders beginning in 1976. Over the life of the M3 Survey, there have been four surveys specifically designed to collect unfilled orders. These surveys were conducted in 1976, 1986, 2000, and 2008. After analyzing the results of the 2008 survey, the Census Bureau determined the need for an annual data collection of unfilled orders data. The U.S. Census Bureau plans a reinstatement with a change to an expired collection “Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Supplement: 2006-2007 Unfilled Orders Benchmark Survey,” to be renamed the “Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders Survey.”

The Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders Survey will be used as a benchmark for the M3 Survey each year. The Census Bureau will use these data to develop universe estimates of unfilled orders as of the end of the calendar year and adjust the monthly M3 data on unfilled orders to these levels on the NAICS basis. The benchmarked unfilled orders levels will then be used to derive estimates of new orders received by manufacturers. The survey data will also be used to determine whether it is necessary to collect unfilled orders data for specific industries on a monthly basis; some industries are not asked to provide unfilled orders data on the M3 Survey.

The Census Bureau will use the information provided by this survey to develop universe estimates of unfilled orders as of the end of each year, and then adjust the monthly M3 data on unfilled orders to these levels. The benchmarked unfilled orders levels will be used to derive estimates of new orders received by manufacturers.

Affected Public: Business or other for-profit.

Frequency: Annually.

Respondent's Obligation: Mandatory.

Legal Authority: Title 13, United States Code, Sections 131, 182, 193, and 224.

OMB Desk Officer: Brian Harris-Kojetin, [phone].

Copies of the above information collection proposal can be obtained by calling or writing Diana Hynek, Departmental Paperwork Clearance Officer, [phone], Department of Commerce, Room 6625, 14th and Constitution Avenue, NW., Washington, DC 20230 (or via the Internet at [e-mail]).

Written comments and recommendations for the proposed information collection should be sent within 30 days of publication of this notice to Brian Harris-Kojetin, OMB Desk Officer either by fax [phone]) or e-mail ([e-mail]).

Dated: January 20, 2010.

Glenna Mickelson,

Management Analyst, Office of the Chief Information Officer.