[Federal Register Volume 60, Number 69 (Tuesday, April 11, 1995)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 18378-18379]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 95-8912]
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DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE
Parole Commission
28 CFR Part 2
Paroling, Recommitting, and Supervising Federal Prisoners:
Revision of the Salient Factor Score
AGENCY: Parole Commission.
ACTION: Proposed rule.
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SUMMARY: The U.S. Parole Commission is proposing to revise the Salient
Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20. The Salient Factor Score which is an
actuarial table that the Commission uses to measure the potential risk
of parole violation. This revision is designed to improve the accuracy
of the Salient Factor Score with respect to older offenders. The
Commission is proposing to add one point to a prisoner's total score if
the current offense (or parole violation) was committed at age 41 or
older, provided the prisoner does not already have the highest possible
total score (10). This revision will give to the Salient Factor Score
improved risk prediction accuracy. The revision is made appropriate by
the fact that the Parole Commission has jurisdiction over an aging
population of prisoners and parolees whose crimes were committed prior
to November 1, 1987.
DATES: Comments must be received by June 12, 1995.
ADDRESSES: Send comments to Office of General Counsel, U.S. Parole
Commission, 5550 Friendship Blvd., Chevy Chase, Maryland 20815. For
further information contact: Pamela A. Posch, Office of General
Counsel, Telephone (301) 492-5959.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Salient Factor Score at 28 CFR 2.20 is
an actuarial device, based upon statistical research, that permits the
U.S. Parole Commission to make a prediction as to the probability of
future parole violation. It is applied to every prisoner who appears
for an initial parole hearing, and to every parolee who has been
returned to prison as a parole violator. The current version of the
Salient Factor Score (SFS-81) was adopted in 1981, and was recently re-
validated through a study of the parole records of federal prisoners
released in 1987. This and other validation studies have shown that the
Salient Factor Score is able to separate prisoners into categories
having significantly different probabilities of recidivism, and that it
continues to have a high degree of predictive accuracy.
However, with the aging of the Parole Commission's ``old law''
offender population, it has become apparent that the accuracy of the
Salient Factor Score could be improved by accounting for the factor of
``age at current offense'' in the case of older offenders and parole
violators. (The U.S. Parole Commission's jurisdiction is limited to
offenders whose crimes were committed prior to November 1, 1987. See
Section 235 of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, which appears as an
Editorial Note to 18 U.S.C. 3551.)
The Commission has long recognized that many criminal offenders
eventually ``burn out'' as the aging process catches up with them. In a
1984 study by the Commission's Research Office, entitled ``Burnout--Age
At Release From Prison and Recidivism'', it was found that recidivism
rates do decline with increased age, and that it would be justifiable
to improve the scores of prisoners whose current offense was committed
at age 41 or older. At the present time, the average age of the ``old
law'' prison population is 43. Thus, it has now become appropriate to
consider adding this factor to the score.
In order to test the accuracy of the proposed revision, the revised
score was [[Page 18379]] applied to a sample of over 1,000 federal
prisoners released in 1987. Approximately 5% of those prisoners
received an improved parole prognosis category placement as compared
with the current version of the score (SFS-81). Moreover, the revised
version of the score displayed a high degree of predictive accuracy.
The Mean Cost Rating increased from .54 to .56, the highest recorded
for a recidivism prediction device that has been subjected to
validation.
Accordingly, the Commission has decided that the Salient Factor
Score should be revised, in order to ensure that the Commission's
decisions are based upon the most accurate available risk-prediction
device. This decision accords with the intent of Congress that the
Parole Commission should ``* * * continue to refine both the criteria
which are used (to judge the probability that an offender will commit a
new offense) and the means for obtaining the information used
therein.'' 2 U.S. Code Cong. and Admin. News at 359 (1976).
Implementation
The revised Salient Factor Score (SFS-95) would be applied at every
initial parole hearing and revocation hearing held on or after the
effective date of the final regulation, and retroactively to federal
prisoners who have already been heard for parole or reparole, at the
next scheduled statutory interim hearing under 28 CFR 2.14 and any
hearing under Sec. 2.28 or Sec. 2.34.
Executive Order 12866 and Regulatory Flexibility Statement
The U.S. Parole Commission has determined that this proposed rule
is not a significant rule within the meaning of Executive Order 12866,
and the proposed rule has, accordingly, not been reviewed by the Office
of Management and Budget. The proposed rule, if adopted, will not have
a significant economic impact upon a substantial number of small
entities, within the meaning of the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5
U.S.C. 605(b).
List of Subjects in 28 C.F.R. Part 2
Administrative practice and procedure, probation and parole,
prisoners.
Accordingly, the U.S. Parole Commission proposes the following
amendment to 28 CFR part 2.
The Proposed Amendment
(1) The authority citation for 28 CFR part 2 continues to read as
follows:
Authority: 18 U.S.C. 4203(a)(1) and 4204(a)(6).
(2) 28 CFR part 2 Sec. 2.20 is proposed to be amended by adding an
instruction to the Salient Factor Scoring Manual under a new Item G as
follows:
ITEM G. If CURRENT OFFENSE WAS COMMITTED AT AGE 41 OR OLDER, ADD 1
POINT IF THE TOTAL SCORE DETERMINED ABOVE IS 9 OR LESS.
This instruction would add a seventh item to the current six-item
score, without changing its current structure as a prediction device
with possible scores ranging from 0 to 10 points. (A point would not be
added if the total score is already 10, placing the offender at the top
of the ``very good'' parole prognosis category.) As in any case, the
Commission will exercise authority to override the prediction made by
the revised score if case-specific factors indicate undiminished risk
despite advancing age, eg, the career criminal offender who has played
a leadership role in organized crime.
Dated: March 31, 1995.
Edward F. Reilly, Jr.,
Chairman, U.S. Parole Commission.
[FR Doc. 95-8912 Filed 4-10-95; 8:45 am]
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