[Federal Register Volume 60, Number 76 (Thursday, April 20, 1995)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 19716-19717]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 95-9840]
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
49 CFR Part 571
Denial of Petition for Rulemaking; Federal Motor Vehicle Safety
Standards
AGENCY: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA),
Department of Transportation.
ACTION: Denial of petition for rulemaking.
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SUMMARY: This document denies Mr. John Chevedden's petition for
rulemaking to specify the license plate mounting location of certain
cars and light trucks. NHTSA's analysis of accident data indicates that
requiring cars and light trucks with off-center front license plates to
have those plates on the driver's side would not have more than a
negligible effect on the occurrence of accidents or fatalities.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. Richard Van Iderstine, Office of
Rulemaking, NHTSA, 400 Seventh Street, SW, Washington, DC 20590. Mr.
Van Iderstine's telephone number is: (202) 366-5275.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: By letter dated October 12, 1994, Mr. John
Chevedden petitioned the agency to issue a rule applicable to new cars
and light trucks with off-center front license plates. Mr. Chevedden
asked NHTSA to mandate that those license plates be positioned on the
driver's side. Mr. Chevedden stated that the rulemaking was needed
because the chances of a vehicle's becoming involved in an accident at
night or other times of reduced ambient light increase when the
vehicle's headlights are off due to the driver's forgetfulness or to
mechanical problems. Mr. Chevedden argued that the chances of such a
vehicle's becoming involved in an accident would be reduced if the
vehicle's off-center front license plate were mounted on the driver's
side. In that location, today's license plates, which typically are
reflectorized, would reflect the light from the headlights of oncoming
traffic. This would indicate how close the vehicle is to opposing
traffic. Mr. Chevedden argued that license plates mounted on the
driver's side could also make parked vehicles more visible and lessen
the possibility of collisions. Mr. Chevedden did not provide any
analysis of the potential benefits of his requested rule.
For the following reasons, NHTSA believes that the safety benefits
of specifying license plate location would be negligible. In attempting
to quantify potential benefits of specifying license plate location,
NHTSA reviewed the laws of States that mandate both front license
plates and reflective license plates and reviewed the numbers and
circumstances of fatal accidents that occurred in all states in 1992.
The chance of achieving any benefits through mandating the location of
front plates would depend on the simultaneous occurrence of a large
number of events, several of which have a low probability of occurring
even independently, much less in combination. Those events, and their
probability of occurring individually in any accident, are set forth
below, based on 1992 data:
Fatal accidents in which a vehicle is likely to have a reflective front
plate--
.47 or 47 percent
Fatal accidents during non-daylight conditions--
.54 or 54 percent
Fatal accidents involving a head-on or side-swipe collision--
Head-on=.017 or 1.7 percent
Side-swipe=.05 or 5 percent
For a total of .067 or 6.7 percent
Vehicles having a passenger's side offset front license plate
assumed to be in fatal accidents--
.01 or 1 percent
Motor vehicles with no front lamps turned on or having complete front
lamp failure assumed to be in fatal accidents--
.01 or 1 percent
Fatal accidents involving parked vehicles--
.066 or 6.6 percent
To assess the impact of mandating that offset front license plates
be located on the driver's side, the agency determined the probability
of all of the above events occurring in the same accident by
multiplying the probability of each of the first three events occurring
individually in a fatal accident by the product of the probabilities
that a fatally involved vehicle has a front passenger's side license
plate and that a fatally involved vehicle will have no lights on while
being driven. The agency believes that the assumption that 1 percent of
vehicles are operated without lights in the dark is very optimistic to
the computation of potential benefits.
NHTSA presumes that American drivers tend toward the right lane of
the roadway while driving, regardless of the presence or absence of
lane markings. Therefore, accidents with parked vehicles generally
concern vehicles [[Page 19717]] parked in the right lane or on the
right shoulder. Most vehicles in the right lane or shoulder would have
their rear end facing oncoming vehicles, and the location of a front
license plate would be irrelevant to the occurrence of a rear end
collision. In the instances in which the parked vehicle is facing right
lane traffic, a passenger's side, rather than driver's side, front
license plate would be in the more favorable position to mark the
extreme intrusion of the parked vehicle into the roadway. If the agency
were to include in its computations collisions with parked vehicles
located in the right lane or on the right shoulder and facing oncoming
traffic, that inclusion would reduce the potential benefits of the
requested rulemaking. This would occur because there would be a net
liability instead of a net benefit for parked cars, according to the
petitioner's logic, if their front license plates were moved from the
passenger's side to the driver's side. Therefore, parked vehicles have
been omitted from the computation of hypothetical maximum benefits.
Thus, the combined probability of the above events is:
.47 x .54 x .067 x .01 x .01=.0000017
Next, NHTSA determined the number of fatalities that might have
occurred in accidents involving that particular combination of events
by multiplying the probability of that combination of events by the
total number of occupant fatalities per year.
.0000017 x 39,235=0.067 relevant fatalities/year
Finally, to determine the number of those fatalities that might be
prevented by mandating that off-center front license plates be mounted
on the driver's side, the agency multiplied the number of relevant
fatalities by a figure representing an assumed level of accident
preventing effectiveness for that placement of the front license plate.
For the purposes of analysis, the agency has used a very optimistic
figure of 2.5 percent.
The trailer conspicuity achieved about 25 percent effectiveness for
the rear treatment in its fleet study. Since the light reflected from
license plates is about 2.6 percent of that from the rear of a trailer
with conspicuity treatment, and the closure rate of vehicles in
Chevedden's case is at least twice that of trailer conspicuity cases, a
very low effectiveness should be assumed. Based on the foregoing, the
agency assumes that the effectiveness of the off-center front
reflectorized license plate is one- tenth that of rear trailer
conspicuity, or 2.5 percent. The estimate of the benefit from the
Chevedden proposal is:
0.067 x 0.025=.0017 fatalities prevented/year.
Based on the above analysis, NHTSA estimates that if it were to
specify that those vehicles with off-center front license plates have
their front plates located on the driver's side, the number of lives
saved would not exceed one life for every 588 years.
The agency also considered the possibility of obtaining benefits by
applying Chevedden's suggestion so that it would affect fatalities
involving vehicles lacking any front license plate (16,977) and
fatalities involving vehicles having front plates that are not
reflective (22,254). The agency is powerless, however, to mandate that
vehicles have front plates or that plates be reflective. Therefore, the
agency cannot address those fatalities by expanding the scope of
Chevedden's petition.
The agency disagrees with Mr. Chevedden's suggestion that adopting
his requested rule would involve ``no cost.'' Specifying license plate
mounting location would impose redesign and retooling costs associated
with relocating mounting holes, bumper fascia, and plate holders.
In accordance with 49 CFR part 552, this completes the agency's
technical review of the petition. The agency has concluded that there
is no reasonable possibility that the amendment requested by the
petitioner would be issued at the conclusion of a rulemaking
proceeding. Accordingly, it denies Mr. Chevedden's petition.
Authority: 49 U.S.C. 30103, 30162; delegation of authority at 49
CFR 1.50 and 501.8.
Issued on: April 17, 1995.
Barry Felrice,
Associate Administrator for Safety Performance Standards.
[FR Doc. 95-9840 Filed 4-19-95; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4910-59-P
